BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Outlook Amid Macro Adoption and Volatility

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin’s Rally Faces Skepticism as Retail Traders Pile Into Shorts

Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery, climbing back above $107,000 after briefly dipping below $100,000. The rebound signals renewed bullish momentum, with the cryptocurrency now eyeing key resistance at $108,000.

Despite the upward trajectory, retail traders are betting against the rally. Data from Alphractal reveals a surge in short positions, indicating skepticism about Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its gains. The aggregated funding rate has turned negative, further underscoring the bearish sentiment among smaller investors.

Historically, retail bearishness during strong uptrends has often preceded further price appreciation. This divergence raises questions about whether Bitcoin’s rally still has room to run—or if a deeper pullback is imminent.

Bitcoin's Resilience Tested by Macro Volatility Amid Whale Activity

Bitcoin's recent stability above $100,000 despite geopolitical tensions marks a structural shift in its market behavior. Unlike past crises that triggered sharp corrections, the current resilience suggests deeper supply-demand dynamics at play. On-chain data reveals whale profit-taking as the primary driver of June's 11% pullback—a far cry from the 22% monthly drops seen during previous macro shocks.

The market's muted reaction to conflict-related FUD stems from discounted risk pricing. Oil's decline during the crisis, contrary to traditional safe-haven patterns, underscores this sophisticated positioning. Yet looming tariff expirations threaten to reintroduce volatility, creating a tension between Bitcoin's organic strength and external catalysts.

Bitcoin Overtakes Google as Sixth-Largest Global Asset by Market Cap

Bitcoin has surged past Google to claim the sixth spot among the world's largest assets by market capitalization, now valued at $2.12 trillion compared to Google's $2.07 trillion. This milestone underscores Bitcoin's rapid ascent from its 2009 inception to rivaling established tech giants.

The cryptocurrency's network value now trails only gold, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. While the comparison isn't perfect—Bitcoin's circulating supply versus Google's outstanding shares—the symbolic shift has captured Wall Street's attention.

ETF inflows have been a key growth driver. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust leads with over $70 billion in assets, followed by Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC at $20 billion each. Since SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional demand has propelled both prices and fund balances upward in near lockstep.

Bitcoin Faces Volatility as $102M Liquidations Highlight Fragile Sentiment

Bitcoin's bullish momentum abruptly reversed with over $102 million in liquidations, exposing the market's underlying instability. Short positions bore the brunt of early trading, accounting for 94% of the wipeouts as BTC briefly surged toward $108,000.

The tide turned rapidly in the final hour—long positions represented 99% of $552k in fresh liquidations as prices dipped 0.58%. This whipsaw action reveals traders' mounting caution despite bitcoin holding key support levels.

Such extreme liquidation skews—first 1,533% favoring bulls, then an equally sharp reversal—suggest algorithmic overreactions are amplifying price swings. Market makers appear to be testing liquidity boundaries ahead of weekend trading.

Tesla and SpaceX Amass Over $2B in Bitcoin Holdings with $1.5B Unrealized Gain

Elon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX have emerged as significant Bitcoin holders, with combined holdings surpassing $2 billion according to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence. The companies acquired BTC at an average price of $32,000, now sitting on nearly $1.5 billion in unrealized profits as prices trade substantially higher.

While Tesla’s $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment was publicly disclosed in 2021, SpaceX’s exposure remained undisclosed until Arkham linked wallet addresses to the aerospace company. The revelation underscores Musk’s continued conviction in cryptocurrency despite his recent quiet period on the subject.

Both corporations have maintained their positions through market volatility, exemplifying the institutional ‘accumulation during weakness’ strategy now yielding substantial returns. The holdings could enable innovative financial applications including crypto-collateralized loans or hedging strategies unavailable with traditional assets.

Mid-Tier Bitcoin Investors Drive Activity on Binance Amid Price Consolidation

Bitcoin hovers below $110,000, trading at $106,841 with a modest 0.4% decline. The asset's narrow range between $106,841 and $107,884 suggests consolidation as market participants await directional cues.

On-chain data reveals a surge in mid-tier investor activity on Binance. Wallets depositing 10-100 BTC now constitute 40% of inflows, outpacing whale-tier transactions (100-1,000 BTC) at 20%. This shift indicates growing participation from high-net-worth individuals and institutional traders.

The divergence between flat price action and elevated exchange activity suggests accumulating pressure. When mid-tier investors—often considered smart money—increase exchange deposits, it typically precedes heightened volatility.

CZ Predicts Bitcoin Will Replace Home Ownership as the New American Dream

Former Binance CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao has declared that owning Bitcoin will soon surpass home ownership as the American dream. His remarks came in response to a groundbreaking MOVE by the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore cryptocurrency's role in mortgage risk assessments.

Zhao's vision hinges on Bitcoin's potential appreciation. "The future American Dream will be to own 0.1 BTC," he tweeted, suggesting such a holding could eventually exceed the value of a U.S. home. The FHFA's directive, issued June 26, 2025, marks a significant step toward mainstream crypto adoption by potentially allowing borrowers to use digital assets as collateral without mandatory fiat conversion.

This policy shift could fundamentally alter wealth accumulation strategies. For the first time, Americans might leverage crypto holdings from regulated exchanges to secure traditional financing—blurring the lines between digital and conventional assets.

Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Strength as Price Holds Above $106,000

Bitcoin futures volumes remain robust, providing market depth despite stable spot prices. Institutional and retail participation continues to fuel liquidity in the derivatives sector, reinforcing price stability and absorbing volatility.

Glassnode data highlights the resilience of Bitcoin's futures market, with trading volumes consistently exceeding $500 million since late 2023. This surge coincides with Bitcoin's rally from $30,000 to over $100,000 by mid-2025, illustrating sustained Leveraged speculation even during corrections.

The contrast between elevated futures activity and softer spot market turnover suggests a derivatives-driven market environment, with institutional engagement underpinning orderly trading conditions.

Bitcoin's Bullish Weekly Chart Hides Potential 'Time Bomb', Warns Analyst

Bitcoin's seemingly bullish weekly Ichimoku structure may conceal a looming downturn if bulls fail to secure a decisive breakout within the next month, according to crypto chartist Dr Cat. The widening kumo (cloud) suggests building bullish momentum, but flat Kijun Sen and bearish signals on daily charts create a paradox.

"An expanding kumo typically strengthens support, but the clock is ticking," Dr Cat noted, highlighting a 4-week deadline for the Chikou Span to close above all-time highs before being reabsorbed into price action—a classic bearish reversal signal. This tension between weekly Optimism and daily red flags creates a high-stakes scenario for July.

Bakkt Files $1 Billion Shelf Registration, Eyes Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Bakkt Holdings has taken a significant step toward institutional cryptocurrency adoption with a $1 billion shelf registration filed with the SEC. The digital asset platform, backed by Intercontinental Exchange, seeks flexibility to issue various securities while explicitly considering Bitcoin acquisitions for its corporate treasury.

The FORM S-3 filing reveals strategic optionality—Bakkt could deploy capital toward BTC and other digital assets under its revised investment policy. Market conditions, operational performance, and capital availability will dictate the timing and scale of potential crypto purchases. This move comes despite the company's disclosed operating losses and going concern uncertainties.

The shelf registration functions as a financial runway for Bakkt, enabling rapid capital deployment when opportunities emerge. Institutional interest in Bitcoin treasury strategies continues gaining momentum, with public companies increasingly treating cryptocurrency as a legitimate reserve asset.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT Surpasses S&P 500 Fund in Fee Revenue

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has eclipsed its flagship iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) in trading fee revenue, generating $186 million annually compared to IVV's $183 million. The milestone comes just 18 months after IBIT's launch, which analysts now call the most successful ETF debut in history.

Despite holding just 12% of IVV's assets under management, IBIT's 25 basis point fee structure—eight times higher than IVV's 3bps—propelled its revenue dominance. The Bitcoin ETF's $75 billion AUM reflects sustained institutional demand, even as its volatility mirrors the S&P 500's fluctuations.

Market observers note IBIT's resilience during recent Bitcoin price turbulence, consistently attracting inflows when competing crypto products faltered. BlackRock's success with IBIT signals deepening mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency exposure, though questions linger about whether altcoin ETFs could replicate this achievement.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

"These projections assume sustained adoption growth without black swan events," cautions Ava, noting Bitcoin's volatility could see 30-50% drawdowns within uptrends.